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‘Strong Export performance” This year’s Korea economic growth rate prediction also reaches 4%

영 저널리스트 기자

입력 2026.10.14 10:57

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8 major IB’s average as 3.5% according to IFC
JPMorgen suggested 4% as only one among IBs
Korea’s export condition is in good form, this year’s growth prediction is keep increasing

Export and import cargo is piled high at the Sinseondae, Gamman, and New Gamman terminals at the Port of Busan in Nam-gu, Busan. [photo from Yunhap News]

[Young Journalist Yeon Cheon] Major global investment banks are raising their future growth expectation for South Korea’s economy due to its strong export, with some now projecting growth of 4%. South Korea is also projected to record the highest growth rate among the Group of 20 (G20) economies.

According to the International Finance Center Korea on the 7th, this year’s GDP growth projection average suggested by major 8 IB is 3.5%, which is 0.2% higher point(p) than last month (3.3%).

IB has been adjusting growth forecasts for 6 consecutive months, since April. All 8 IBs predicted that Korea’s economy will record about 3% development. The number of IBs that predicted 3% growth rate increased from 3 places in late June, 6 in late July, and 8 in late August.

Especially, JPMorgan raised its forecast for Korea’s economic growth this year to 4.0%. This is 0.2% higher than what JPMorgan had suggested late August.

Other than that, UBS(2.8→3.5%), Bank of America(3.1%→3.6%), City(3.7→3.8%) adjusted their forecasts.

According to the Ministry of Finance and Economy, they stated that this year’s Korea prediction has been modified the most among the G20.

OECD said of Korea, “this year, strong export and production increase will lead the growth, and modest recovery in consumer spending will continue next year as well.”

This year, from January to September, Korea’s cumulative exports surpassed $800 billion, breaking the highest record. It exceeded last year’s export value ($709.3 billion) which was the highest. September’s export value was $120.94 billion, which is 83.5% more than last year's September.

As the probability of semiconductors export boom continuing into next year is getting higher and higher, IB’s adjustment is being continued to next year’s figure. 6 IBs among 8 of them set the prediction higher for next year.

Due to that, next year’s development rate prediction average is 2.8%, which increased 0.3%p then last August's average(2.5%), being closer to Bank of Korea’s prediction(2.9%).

OECD predicted the growth rate as 2.6%. This is also 0.7%p higher than June’s prediction(1.9%).

▶원문 기사: '수출 호조' 올해 한국 경제 성장률 4% 전망치도 나왔다 (이코노미스트, 2026.10.7)

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